Assignment internship Propensity to fly

Omschrijving stage opdracht / taken

Context
At the department traffic analysis and forecasting, we use historic trends and patterns to look at future. In our current long-term forecasting model, we make basic regression analysis: Considering the development of oil price and GDP in relation to passenger numbers over time. Apart from that, we do not consider any behavioral change over time – which seems to be a pitfall. 
Hence, we now want to gain more insights on the propensity to fly: how would the average number of (resident) trips increase in future?

To be further assessed / developed
As we see it currently, there are 2 points of view
1)Can we find evidence on propensity to fly in comparable markets? 
a.GDP development
b.(residual) income per capita
c.Development of cost of travel (including tax)

2)Apart from that, what actually drives the propensity to fly: 
a.Socio-economic behavior / Culture / leisure time
b.Country demographics (age / culture)
c.Political / Legislative 
d.Alternative modes of transportation

Available data
Schiphol historic flight database 
Schiphol Market research: passenger profile information (reason for travel, country of residence, etc)
DiiO: Global Schedule and booking data
IHS-Markit: economic forecast database (GDP, Currency, Commodity)